CNBC takes a look at the possible outcomes for Ukraine and what might happen in each of them: Close watchers of the Russia-Ukraine war say the fluid and rapidly changing nature of the conflict makes it hard to gauge what will happen next in Ukraine, with both Moscow's and the West's next moves unpredictable. It's more than six months since Vladimir Putin ordered a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our User Agreement and Privacy Policy and Cookie Statement and Your California Privacy Rights. As he watched the Iron Curtain collapse and the Berlin Wall fall, President George H. W. Bush was chastised by the media for not appearing celebratory enough. "Kyiv, backed by It hasn't ended well for past Russian leaders who fought wars and didn't win them. Analysts at the Scowcroft Center noted that, in their "rosiest" possible scenario for how the Ukraine conflict could end, Ukraine could see its own defensive capabilities bolstered by NATO, allowing its military and civilian resistance to "overcome the odds and grind Moscow's advance to a halt.". Fifth, Ukraine has been making substantial efforts to bridge cultural divides and promote ethnical inclusion and tolerance within and across its borders. It will not return to the status quo ante. But however this conflict plays out, the world has changed. believe that it is protected by international treaties if Ukraines sovereignty is violated so blatantly? In this scenario, the strategists noted that a Ukrainian insurgency could force "a significant, sustained human and financial toll on Russia" as it would be required to devote far more of its resources over a much longer period of time than it had anticipated. There is a bloody palace coup and Putin is out. Instead, more than six months on, the Russian army has been losing ground. What Happens Could Ukraine win and Russia lose the war? Here's how it might Reiter, the author of How Wars End, was intrigued by the fact that the conflict in Ukraine was such an old-fashioned war. Ukraine gave up its nukes in 1994 in exchange of security guarantees made by the U.S., U.K. and Russia. Civilians may join the fight. Might there, despite everything, still be a possible diplomatic solution? That order was stillborn with the creation of the United Nations at the Putin warned that Ukraine will be 'blamed' for losing its statehood if its leaders 'continue doing what they are doing'. What happens Russia initiated the invasion in response to a string of apartment building bombings in Moscow and elsewhere in September 1999 that killed 243 Russians and injured 1,700, bombings that most now believe the Russian FSB security services carried out themselves, perhaps even with the explicit permission of Putin. Ukraine In contrast, Ukraines defenders have fought with striking tenacity and skill. "If today or tomorrow no changes in strategy are made," Mr Kadyrov warned, "I will be forced to speak with the leadership of the defence ministry and the leadership of the country to explain the real situation on the ground to them. What Happens "Assuming Putin wins the military war the trillion dollar question is how he wins the peace in Ukraine Ukrainians have had 30 years of freedom, which they relish, and how can Putin turn the clock back to 91' [the collapse of the Soviet Union] without brutal suppression which would further make him, and his puppet regime in Kyiv, international pariahs. Putin was hoping to expand Russian control over Ukraine all the way west to the Moldovan border by now, the official said, in order to link up with more Russian troops and attempt to encircle Kyiv. "Ukrainians will resist long and hard even if the formal military battles end. Moscow had occupied those areas months ago, but after a lightning counter-offensive by the Ukrainian army, the Russian military has lost considerable territory in north-east Ukraine. He judges that continuing the war may be a greater threat to his leadership than the humiliation of ending it. How a Russian invasion of Ukraine could affect you : NPR Consider this scenario. Lets start with the facts and ask a few basic questions to understand the stakes: First, after Ukraine emerged as an independent state in 1991, it inherited the 3rd largest arsenal of nuclear weapons. By God, it didnt just happenIll tell you that.. The calculation for Ukraine is much more straightforward. The challenge increasingly appears to be how to lose the war without sacrificing his hold on power. WASHINGTON After President Joe Biden promised more U.S. military support for Ukraine at a NATO summit in Vilnius, he now needs Congress to put the money If you are following events in Russia and Ukraine closely, you could be forgiven for wondering if NATO would be unlikely to respond directly with military strikes against a nuclear power; the only way to prepare is greater intelligence efforts to prevent or at least blunt the effectiveness of the efforts," Bremmer said. what happens "They weren't talking that way in February," McFaul said. Offering predictions about what will follow the Russia-Ukraine conflict is probably a foolhardy exercise, but here are a few thoughts that might engender further speculation and discussion. Sarotte about NATO expansion, Not One Inchunderscore how hard it was to keep the peace even at the end, to not antagonize Soviet and Russian hard-liners, and to not risk unraveling the peaceful withdrawal of Soviet forces from Eastern Europe. The pain will grow by the day; the impact harder to hide from the civilian population with every passing hour. The Soviet Union was never the economic engine America once feared, and 30 years of kleptocratic rule has further weakened Russia. Russia mishandled Covid, failed to develop a functional vaccine, and continues to face shrinking birth rates and an unhealthy, aging population. But Mr Putin might take the risk if he felt it was the only way of saving his leadership. Russia is estimated to have lost nearly 40% of its fleet of tanks in the Ukraine war, as per a count by the specialist think tank, the International Institute of Strategic Studies (IISS). to not develop nuclear weapons if a superpower can freely renege on its promises to not use force? Countries on the EU's (and NATO's) eastern flank like Poland, Romania and the Baltic states, all of which have seen their NATO deployments bolstered in recent weeks, are extremely nervous about the potential for the conflict to spill over into their own territories. The hard part to swallow is that between now and then many more people will die, additional There's of course the possibility that a Ukrainian fightback doesn't pose a significant challenge to Russian forces that remain in Ukraine after all, thousands of fighters are civilians who taken up arms and have been hastily trained. When an authoritarian leader's aura of invincibility fades, it can cause problems for the aforesaid leader. Military failures in World War One sparked the 1917 Revolution and the end of the Tsar. Ukraines only threat to Russia is that it can escape the Soviet legacy and show to the Russian people that one does not need a tsar to run a successful country. Despite brave resistance, Kyiv falls within days. It's a very interesting situation. what happens "The short war has claimed thousands of lives on both sides, leaving widespread bitterness in its wake. 2023 CNBC LLC. This is probably the biggest challenge that we are seeing in Europe since World War II," he said. "It remains highly unlikely Russia would launch direct military attacks against NATO forces, given that's understood by NATO to be a tripwire for a broader war but support for Chechen terrorist attacks into frontline NATO states delivering all these weapons? Loses And, surprisingly, Russian and Ukrainian officials have met for talks on the border with Belarus. Russia stands a decent chance of losing this war; Ukraine therefore stands a decent chance of settling the war on better terms than the unacceptably large concessions that Moscow currently Those hard-won victories are now under threat and the appeal of democracy appears to be waning. University of Rochester political scientists discuss military developments, the efficacy of sanctions, and how to end the war. This would be hugely dangerous and risk war with Nato. And what would happen if he decided to cut his losses and end the war? The Picture Show Photos: Evacuees flee Russian aggression, leaving cities and loved ones behind Other authoritarian regimes are watching. To date, only one city has definitively fallen to the Russians since the invasion began in the early morning of Feb. 24 Kherson although others like Mariupol, in the south, appear to be perilously close amid food, water and power shortages. what happens Eurasia Group's chairman, Cliff Kupchan, and colleagues added in a note Thursday that "a rump Ukrainian state" is likely to be led from Lviv, a city in Ukraine's west and near the border with Poland, with the semi-exiled government likely to receive "heavy western support.". until a few weeks ago, Bidens presidency seemed to stand on the cusp of a new world eraone that finally put the failed forays of Iraq and Afghanistan behind the US and allowed it to focus on the rising global competition with China, a pivot Bidens two most recent predecessors had tried and failed to make. But it is not beyond the realms of plausibility that such a scenario could emerge from the wreckage of a bloody conflict. Now that Putin has cast his lot in Ukraine, nearly every passing day seems to confirm that he has made an awful, hubristic, and perhaps even politically fatal mistake. (iStockphoto). If Russia prevails in Ukraine, analysts including Ash have warned of a new "Iron Curtain" descending on Eastern Europe, creating two opposing geopolitical blocs reminiscent of those in the Cold War the EU (and NATO nations) on one side of a potentially militarized border and Ukraine and other countries in Russia's political orbit (such as Belarus and Moldova) on the other. Ukraine Putins gamble in Ukraine has been the quick undoing of 30 years of economic liberalization and Western expansion inside Russia; his moves since, like seizing and nationalizing the hundreds of leased aircraft on Russian soil, all but guarantee that Western firms will never spend another dollar in Russia while Putin leads the country. Resistance to Russian forces is likely to get tougher as the war progresses and Russia pulls out the stops to seize more territory. Since his earliest forays into Ukraine, in 2014, Putins government has warned that it still believes in the use of nuclear weapons when the existence of the state itself is threatened.. Ukraine is a symbol too. If they are provided with the right weapons in sufficient quantities, Ukraine can absolutely win this war. Sarottes new book, Not One Inch, about the delicate politics of NATO expansion in the 1990s, comes from records she found in the State Department archives of a December 1999 conversation in which Nursultan Nazarbayevthen dictator of neighboring Kazakhstan, whose 30-year brutal rule coincidentally ended just a few weeks agotold President Bill Clinton that Putin had nothing going for him besides the Chechen War. As Nazarbayev recognized even then, He has no charisma, no foreign policy experience, no economic policy of his own. NATO Summit 2023: Assurances that Ukraine's future is in NATO But for all of Ukraine's heart and courage in facing down multiple, sustained attacks from Russia's military in the north, east and south of the country, many analysts and strategists believe it is only a matter of time before Ukraine is overwhelmed by Moscow's military might. Not for Ukraine. Ukrainians will resist, and there will be many dead Russian soldiers. Advertisement Beyond the Battlefield: What Might Happen Next in the Ukraine Crisis Europe faces a new refugee crisis, and harsh economic penalties to What if Putin Loses His War in Ukraine? Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov is a key supporter of Putin's war in Ukraine, but has publicly criticized Russia's failures on the battlefield. Three weeks into Russias invasion of Ukraine, as its underperforming military bogs down in the face of a world-inspiring defense effort, US president Joe Biden and Russian president Vladimir Putin find themselves caught between the cautionary lessons of history and todays geopolitical realities. Bidens job, it increasingly appears, is to allow Putin the time and space to lose the war without giving him an excuse to escalate it into World War III. Global Business and Financial News, Stock Quotes, and Market Data and Analysis. Putins appetites are only growing. Chinas Ministry of Foreign Affairs has released a series of stonewalling statements. Ukraine Ukraine By Walter Russell Mead June 5, 2023 If you are following events in Russia and Ukraine closely, you could be forgiven for wondering if Vladimir Putin has backed himself into a corner. For the free world. Russia will target, in the event of kinetic activity, Ukrainian command and control, communications and other critical infrastructure. "They didn't flee. Ukraine To try to renormalize relations with Putin after this, as we did in 2014, would be to make exactly the same mistake again, and that is why Putin must fail, Prime Minister Boris Johnston said Saturday, calling the crisis a turning point for the world. Russias own bright next generation is abandoning the nation in droves, fleeing abroad and taking their talents and entrepreneurship to new economies. On Monday, his spokesman Dmitry Peskov told journalists: "[Russia's] special military operation continues and will continue until all the tasks that were initially set have been fulfilled.". He is a Senior Fellow at SNF Agora Institute, Johns Hopkins University. The infamous Munich deal between Germany, Great Britain, France and Italy in 1938 that gave green light to Hitler to take over Czechoslovakia was meant to preserve peace. What happens if Putin decides to cut Russia's losses in Ukraine? This example was heralded as a sign of new era in nonproliferation of nuclear weapons. Its the lesson Dwight Eisenhower tried hardest to teach his young successor in the midst of the Cold War. Might it be possible this war could spill outside Ukraine's borders? John F. Kennedys Ich bin ein Berliner was a pivotal commitment to counter any aggression and likely saved the city. At the end of his two-term presidency, asked what he was most proud of, he didnt hesitate: We kept the peace, he said. Professor Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at Kings College, London, wrote this week: "It is now as likely that there will be regime change in Moscow as in Kyiv.". Diplomats say it is important the Russian leader knows what it would take for Western sanctions to lift so a face-saving deal is at least possible. More than 350 UC Berkeley scholars share their perspectives on local, national and global issues. Maybe Russian forces get bogged down, hampered by low morale, poor logistics and inept leadership. Russia has assembled up to 190,000 forces personnel, including ground, sea and air, around Ukraine, armed with fast jets, artillery, warships and tanks. The social upheaval following the disintegration of the Soviet Union added to The material on this site may not be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, cached or otherwise used, except with the prior written permission of Cond Nast. Firstly, even though Russia appears to be on its heels, experts are not expecting Putin to back down from his aggressive stance. There are a lot of things that can start the ball rolling toward a confrontation Putin doesnt want but might not know how to get out of. Putin, Biden Face a Dangerous Choice: How Does Russia Want to Lose? Russia lost 27 million people in World War II, distorting the country's demographic profile for decades. Ukraine Crisis: What Happens Next for the Rest of the World? Read about our approach to external linking. So let us step back for a moment and consider how the conflict in Ukraine might play out. But if there may be little that the West can do to prevent a Russian military conquest, it will be able to influence what happens afterward. WebThe War in Ukraine Is Exacerbating Russia's Demographic Crisis. For Putin, the Ukraine war is quickly becoming an existential fightwhich increases the danger inherent in each step of Western escalation. Last modified on Mon 27 Feb 2023 04.56 EST. Such an outcome would remain unstable and the prospect of conflict breaking out again would be high. Ukraine is the one and only country that did it. Ukraine Ukraine Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov is a key supporter of Putin's war in Ukraine, but has publicly criticized Russia's failures on the battlefield. Ukraine joining NATO will make the world more "vulnerable", Russia's president has warned. Facing defeat, theyre unlikely to leave even extreme weapons unused if theyre available. Fiona Hill on Whether Ukraine Can Win and What Happens if Russia Loses The foreign policy expert maps out the possible futures for the Russia-Ukraine war. With Russian troops in full-scale assault against Ukraine, a key step for the U.S. and its NATO allies should be tripling combat-ready troops in the Baltics and NATO-allied eastern Europe to deter any thought of a Ukraine-style incursion there.
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